I give you, perhaps, the best and deepest piece of analysis I’ve ever read in a World Bank report. Timothy Taylor explains it nicely:
What do development experts think that the poor believe, and how does it compare to what the poor actually believe? For example, development experts were asked if they thought individuals in low-income countries would agree with the statement: “What happens to me in the future mostly depends on me.” The development experts thought that maybe 20% of the poorest third would agree with this statement, but about 80% actually did. In fact, the share of those agreeing with the statement in the bottom third of the income distribution was much the same as for the upper two-thirds–and higher than the answer the development experts gave for themselves!
It’s from the new World Development Report, and I thank Tyler Cowen for the pointer. Here’s the report:
Dedicated, well-meaning professionals in the field of development—including government policy makers, agency officials, technical consultants, andfrontline practitioners in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors—can fail to help, or even inadvertently harm, the very people they seek to assist if their choices are subtly and unconsciously influenced by their social environment, the mental models they have of the poor, and the limits of their cognitive bandwidth.
164 Responses
The World Development Report goes on to state, “Perhaps the most pressing concern is whether development professionals understand the circumstances in which the beneficiaries of their policies actually live and the beliefs and attitudes that shape their lives …” If development professionals do not understand some of the most fundamental beliefs of the poor, a major shift is needed in the institution of international development. We need more development professionals with personal, first-hand experience with poverty. I do not mean someone who has worked for the World Bank in Nairobi for a year, I mean someone who has spent many years living in Kibera, for example. I understand that this is easier said than done. It seems easier, however, to teach a person with a true understanding of poverty the technical skills needed to work in development than to teach a person with a Masters Degree in international development about the true meaning, realities, and implications of living in poverty. (For disclosure, I am currently in a Master of Development Practice program, which is very enriching, but not a substitute for experience living in a developing nation.)
RT @ewb: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/oy8lP8duKk via @cblatts
In which cognitive bias provides job security: The poor can’t help themselves, so they need meeeee! http://t.co/lF9lLNKrjI
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @mgaldino: “Do development workers underestimate the poor [in developing countries]? The survey evidence” http://t.co/La0yaY0Izx
RT @AfriGovR: @ohanyidof: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/xpsaVkB1WQ v:@ohanyidof
@ohanyidof: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/xpsaVkB1WQ v:@ohanyidof
RT @mgaldino: “Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence” http://t.co/UhEv2c4dz7
“Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence” http://t.co/UhEv2c4dz7
“What happens to me in the future mostly depends on me.” Do you and the “poor” agree on this statement? http://t.co/dfSvWEpZBX @cblatts
RT @WhyDev: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The answer will not surprise you http://t.co/MONe3aGZGo via @cblatts
The whole premise of my book: we’ve no idea what the global poor are doing. Current world dev report proves me right: http://t.co/2tiKW1kGXe
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/3I1uduskdd
@cblatts @Give_Directly Good read.
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
The weird thing is, I’m a reasonably functional adult human in a 1st world country, and I’d answer “no” in a heartbeat. 15 years of a chronic illness makes it very clear where the power lies.
I’m with Afrophile. I think these statistics are shocking and so it is good to get them circulated. But don’t for one moment underestimate the degree to which the poor people who were surveyed answered according to how they thought would be most advantageous to them.
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
“Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence” http://t.co/YKTDozg7zw
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
@LeeCrawfurd @JustinSandefur @hlanthorn @cblatts We should if we make policy recommendations or decisions aimed at supporting other people
RT @benhecht: Scourge of social sector. MT @BlendedValue poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals. http://t.co/…
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
RT @benhecht: Scourge of social sector. MT @BlendedValue poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals. http://t.co/…
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/vIu6O0e6nd
RT @benhecht: Scourge of social sector. MT @BlendedValue poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals. http://t.co/…
RT @benhecht: Scourge of social sector. MT @BlendedValue poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals. http://t.co/…
RT @benhecht: Scourge of social sector. MT @BlendedValue poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals. http://t.co/…
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/ICD6TY7iaS I HAVE SO MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THIS. SEE IT EVERYDAY!
Whoa! The impact of such misplaced assumptions is profound. Do development workers underestimate the poor? http://t.co/mnFHPPABan
Scourge of social sector. MT @BlendedValue poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals. http://t.co/PzGi0Scfzy
Everyone underestimates them. @Shubha_a: *clap clap* Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey evidence http://t.co/2O4PfEqf0Q“
RT @niawag2011: It’s a valuable insight that poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals per @cblatts http://t.co/…
RT @WhyDev: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The answer will not surprise you http://t.co/MONe3aGZGo via @cblatts
RT @Shubha_a: *clap clap* Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/3GIqKs0gCj
“Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence” – Chris Blattman – http://t.co/zy25TBnoN4 http://t.co/w2I89Zhzw1
*clap clap* Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/3GIqKs0gCj
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/5GRAtHEL67
Do development workers underestimate the #poor? The World Bank survey evidence is revealing http://t.co/JTHMONKx7q
#socent #poverty
RT @niawag2011: It’s a valuable insight that poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals per @cblatts http://t.co/…
RT @niawag2011: It’s a valuable insight that poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals per @cblatts http://t.co/…
RT @niawag2011: It’s a valuable insight that poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals per @cblatts http://t.co/…
@viewfromthecave @AnjaChristanell @cblatts No surprise, many development workers aren’t trained to understand people who live in poverty.
Via the new WDR, here is a graph showing “development experts” badly misunderstanding the poor http://t.co/PKA4GZ8fmW http://t.co/K6ICBZdACe
RT @WhyDev: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The answer will not surprise you http://t.co/MONe3aGZGo via @cblatts
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/ttsrOTlrVU
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The answer will not surprise you http://t.co/MONe3aGZGo via @cblatts
The new WB report seems to hit a nerve: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence – http://t.co/ybAzSrFBm9
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/BsVUM6ZQP8 (via @cblatts)
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @david_henderson: RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/7cT19BAHFo cc @FIInational…
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
It’s a valuable insight that poor people estimate their “agency” higher than do aid professionals per @cblatts http://t.co/1APkyyPnYh 1/n
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/325EgXrgiq
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
RT @Laurenz_AEN: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/n3RgCrnsXk
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/n3RgCrnsXk
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/5dOGzEEKJS
RT @ewb: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/nAuOi504VI via @cblatts
RT @cblatts: Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
@cblatts Chris, how is it that after classics of Weber, Goffman etc etc we still seem surprised there are different types of rationalities?
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/…
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
RT @financialaccess: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/DgA3XMrPMj
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
Not surprising, but disappointing RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/YxfByQDY9l
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/…
RT @cblatts: Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
RT @david_henderson: RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/7cT19BAHFo cc @FIInational…
@cblatts calls #WDRmind perhaps best and deepest analysis he’s ever read in a WB report — http://t.co/Mp44Czdjj2
Poor but rational? Scarcity? “@cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/n9vaSpe4Ya”
RT @david_henderson: RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/7cT19BAHFo cc @FIInational…
RT @cblatts: Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
@cblatts Development needs more social workers who have skills to converse with and understand individuals and communities
Do development economists have the wrong mental model of the poor? http://t.co/yKLNljk9qK
RT @went1955: Interesting ! “Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey evidence” — C. Blattman — http://t.co/EILS3d4u0c http://…
What experts assume about the beliefs of poor people http://t.co/JzVIMDaOaJ @cblatts
.@cblatts ‘unconsciously influenced by environment,mental models of poor, limits of cognitive bandwidth'[this often absent from discussions]
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/…
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/…
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time http://t.co/MRqtHqN67H (vía @cblatts)
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/…
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/…
Afrophile has summed it up very nicely. Point (a) leads to planning. (b) leads to planning. (c) leads to planning. (d) leads to planning.
@viewfromthecave @cblatts Would be interesting to see results in cities that have longer historical record of dictatorship/totalitarianism
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/…
RT @viewfromthecave: Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/…
Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey says…Yes and big time – @cblatts w the highlights http://t.co/sfzi310DpF
Do development workers see the poor too differently from Self? Survey evidence by Blattman http://t.co/IWhiRmb6Qp http://t.co/THnBacGI5L
Hi Afrophile – do you have any “data” to support your “assertions”? especially (c) and (d), which are not in any way suggested by these results
RT @went1955: Interesting ! “Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey evidence” — C. Blattman — http://t.co/EILS3d4u0c http://…
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
http://t.co/4CSUTN46kR – how cognitive bias can shape policy interventions ( in this case, Intl development)
Interesting ! “Do development workers underestimate the poor? Survey evidence” — C. Blattman — http://t.co/EILS3d4u0c http://t.co/hQ2NQ5AiiO
MT @cblatts Dev experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/WUXPvlI9oL
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/yPbkjixIi9
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @ewb: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/nAuOi504VI via @cblatts
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/OObrhnYSMF via @feedly
Title could also be do poor people understimate constraints on their future? Possibly both true http://t.co/zuSCIBSXML @cblatts @TAJWheeler
RT @rasiiii: Once again, development ‘experts’ show how little they understand the lives of the poor http://t.co/IOr7G6NDAH
RT @jnwadiuko: Important to remember the power of self-efficacy. @cblattman Do development workers underestimate the poor? http://t.co/APt2…
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/nAuOi504VI via @cblatts
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @rasiiii: Once again, development ‘experts’ show how little they understand the lives of the poor http://t.co/IOr7G6NDAH
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
I’d say the statement is accurate–development workers (and researchers) most certainly underestimate the poor–but not only in the way implied by this excerpt.
This result suggest (a) development “experts” underestimate poor people’s sense of their own agency; (b) development “experts” overestimate their own knowledge about poor people, which seems to undermine their own pretensions of “expertise” about “development”; (c) development researchers underestimate people’s ability to understand the broader context in which condescending survey questions are asked, and answer in ways that are more likely to redound to their benefit, and therefore (d) overestimate the extent to which survey data reflect some sort of objective truth about the world instead of mere data points in the repeating bargaining game of resources and information that goes on between development workers, researchers, and “beneficiaries”.
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/QLcVczKwEc
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
World Bank staff don’t appear to understand their beneficiaries very well http://t.co/tC6SbXyK1O @cblatts
World Bankers overestimate how fatalist the poor are. They also overestimate how often they fly business class. http://t.co/WMpTWJluKE
@JustinSandefur @hlanthorn @cblatts most pple don’t know basic facts about others http://t.co/WmVng8J8T9 why should we know how they think?
@JustinSandefur @LeeCrawfurd @cblatts oh right. silly me. well, more monitoring, observation yields revealed prefs… w obv bias concerns.
@hlanthorn @LeeCrawfurd @cblatts Nope. We’re economists for god’s sake. (Revealed preference trumps stated preference, yadda yadda.)
@JustinSandefur @LeeCrawfurd @cblatts sorry to jump in here but… can’t you “just” ask interlocuators what they think/thought or expect/ed?
@LeeCrawfurd @cblatts Fair. But I think point here is more ‘meta’ than just incomplete info. A misestimation of how interlocutors think.
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
@JustinSandefur @cblatts can’t you be perfectly rational but just have poor info about what most other people think?
@JustinSandefur @cblatts is this really a good example of a cognitive bias though?
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
RT @cblatts: Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
RT @cblatts: Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
“@cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/WRhstu6WFM”
@cblatts Speculation: Experts envision a broader range of potential outcomes than do the poor.
Risk: I’m doubling down on this bias.
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
Dvpt experts thought 20% of the poorest third would say they control their lives, but 80% actually did. http://t.co/85WCiUdL8z
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/dp1SDPlKkw via @cblatts
Development workers underestimate the poor http://t.co/VjCd85zNmE @cblatts
Glad we finally measure & acknowlege this! How will we change it?
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci
RT @cblatts: Do development workers underestimate the poor? The survey evidence http://t.co/LyDR8PpHci