Books

• Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace (2022). Viking Press.

Working papers/Works in Progress

• Statebuilding in the city: An experiment in civilian alternatives to policing (2024), R&R at American Political Science Review, with Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing & Santiago Tobon
• Eat Widely, Vote Wisely? Lessons from a Campaign Against Vote Buying in Uganda (2024), with Horacio Larreguy, Benjamin Marx & Otis Reid
• Pax Criminalis (2024), with Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing Felipe Martinez & Santiago Tobon
• Who Joins Gangs and Why? Evidence from Medellín (in progress), with Arantxa Rodrigues & Santiago Tobon
• The Personalist Penalty: Autocratic Institutions and Economic Growth, with Scott Gehlbach and Arthur Yu

Peer-reviewed articles

• Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance (2024), Forthcoming in The Review of Economic Studies, with Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing & Santiago Tobon
• Employment and Earnings of Men at High Risk of Gun Violence (2024), with Max Kapustin, Monica Bhatt, Sara Heller, and Marianne Bertrand. AEA Papers and Proceedings.
• Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago (2023), with Marianne Bertrand, Monica Bhatt, Sara Heller & Max Kapustin, Quarterly Journal of Economics (Lead article).
  
  • See the Policy note and coverage by NPR’s Hidden Brain, The Trace, and the Chicago Sun-Times.
• Cognitive behavior therapy reduces crime and violence over 10 years: Experimental evidence (2023), with Sebastian Chaskel, Julian Jamison & Margaret Sheridan, American Economic Review: Insights
  • See the Washington Post Op-Ed and coverage in Vox.com
• The long term impacts of industrial and entrepreneurial work: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia (2022), with Stefan Dercon & Simon Franklin, Journal of Development Economics
• The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia (2022), with Samuel Bazzi, Robert A. Blair, Oeindrila Dube, Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, The Review of Economics and Statistics
• Place based interventions at scale: The direct and spillover effects of policing and city services on crime (2021), with Donald Green, Daniel Ortega & Santiago Tobón, Journal of the European Economic Association [Online appendix] [Teaching material]
• The long term impacts of grants on poverty: 9-year evidence from the Youth Opportunities Program in Uganda (2020) with Nathan Fiala & Sebastian Martinez, American Economic Review: Insights
• Engineering informal institutions: Long run impacts of alternative dispute resolution on violence and property rights in Liberia (2020) with Alexandra Hartman & Robert Blair, Journal of Politics
• The Impacts of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work on Income and Health: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia (2018) with Stefan Dercon, American Economic Journal: Applied (ungated copy)
  • See our New York Times Op-Ed, the policy summary and press release, a podcast, as well as coverage in the Financial Times (ungated version), Vox and Quartz
• Do anti-poverty programs sway voters? Experimental Evidence from Uganda (2018) with Mathilde Emeriau & Nathan Fiala, Review of Economics & Statistics
• Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence on cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia (2017) with Julian Jamison & Margaret Sheridan, American Economic Review
  • Watch the talk, see the policy note, read my summary in the Washington Post, listen to the NPR Planet Money or Freakonomics episodes, or my related New York Times Op-Ed
• Predicting local violence: Evidence from a panel survey in Liberia, with Robert Blair and Alexandra Hartman (2017) Journal of Peace Research
  • See the policy note and news coverage in Quartz and SciDevNet
• Can war foster cooperation? (2016) with Michael Bauer, Julie Chytilová, Edward Miguel, Joseph Henrich & Tamar Mitts, Journal of Economic Perspectives
  • See the coverage in the Washington Post
  • See the supplementary appendix
• Can employment reduce lawlessness and rebellion? A field experiment with high-risk men in a fragile state (2016) with Jeannie Annan, American Political Science Review
  • See the policy note and news coverage in The Atlantic
  • Surveys, data & full replication materials
• The returns to microenterprise support among the ultra-poor: A field experiment in post-war Uganda (2016) with Eric Green, Julian Jamison & Jeannie Annan, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
  • See the policy note and news coverage in the New York Times’ Opinionator and Economix blogs, The Economist & this EconTalk podcast.
  • Surveys, data, and full replication materials
• Measuring the measurement error: A Method to Qualitatively Validate Sensitive Survey Data (2016) with Tricia Gonwa, Julian Jamison, Katherine Rodrigues, and Margaret Sheridan, Journal of Development Economics
  • Surveys, data, and full replication materials available soon
• Does poverty alleviation decrease depression symptoms in post-conflict settings? A cluster-randomized trial of microenterprise assistance in northern Uganda (2016) with Eric Green, Julian Jamison, and Jeannie Annan, Global Mental Health
  • Surveys, data, and full replication materials
• Women’s entrepreneurship and intimate partner violence: A cluster randomized trial of microenterprise assistance and partner participation in post-conflict Uganda (2015) with Eric Green, Julian Jamison, and Jeannie Annan, Social Science & Medicine
  • Surveys, data, and full replication materials
• Generating skilled self-employment in developing countries: Experimental evidence from Uganda (2014) with Nathan Fiala and Sebastian Martinez, The Quarterly Journal of Economics
  • Coverage in the NY Times, another from the Times, Slate, Forbes, Business Week, FT. Also, my own take plus this EconTalk podcast.
  • Surveys, data, and full replication materials
• Economic Shocks and Conflict: The Evidence from Commodity Prices (2014), with Samuel Bazzi, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
  • Online appendix, paper replication files and raw commodity data
• How to promote order and property rights under weak rule of law? An experiment in changing dispute resolution behavior through community education (2014), with Alexandra Hartman and Robert Blair, American Political Science Review
  • Read the policy summary, see the surveys, data, and full replication replication materials, or access the original project curriculum and proposal
• The Logic of Child Soldiering and Coercion (2013), with Bernd Beber, International Organization. (Winner of the Robert O. Keohane Award)
  • Replication materials
• Civil War, Gender and Reintegration in northern Uganda (2011), with Jeannie Annan, Dyan Mazurana, and Khristopher Carlson, Journal of Conflict Resolution
  • Replication materials
• The Consequences of Child Soldiering (2010), with Jeannie Annan, The Review of Economics and Statistics
  • Replication materials
• From Violence to Voting: War and Political Participation in Uganda (2009), The American Political Science Review
  • Replication materials
• Winners and Losers in the Commodity Lottery: The Impact of Terms of Trade Growth and Volatility in the Periphery, 1870-1939 (2007), with Jason Hwang and Jeffrey Williamson, Journal of Development Economics
  • Download our country commodity price index (CSV file) or full source data on commodity prices 1865-1950 (zipped Excel file)
  • A full data appendix can be found in NBER Working Paper 10600. Other variables and the full replication file can be obtained from Jeffrey G. Williamson.

Other academic writing

• Does alleviating poverty increase cognitive performance? Short- and long-term evidence from a randomized controlled trial (2023), Cortex 169, Registered Report, with Barnabas Szaszi et al.
• Generating employment in poor and fragile states: Evidence from labor market and entrepreneurship programs (2017), with Laura Ralston
• Children and War: How “Soft” Research Can Answer the Hard Questions in Political Science (2012), Review Essay, Perspectives on Politics
• Post-conflict Recovery in Africa: The Micro Level (2011), in The Oxford Companion to the Economics of Africa
• Civil War (2010), with Edward Miguel, The Journal of Economic Literature
  • Replication files for figures
• On the Nature and Causes of LRA abduction: What the Abductees Say (2010), with Jeannie Annan, The Lord’s Resistance Army: War, Peace and Reconciliation in Northern Uganda (Allen & Vlassenroot, eds.)
• Child Combatants in Northern Uganda: Reintegration Myths and Realities (2008), with Jeannie Annan, Security and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Dealing with Fighters in the Aftermath of War (Robert Muggah, ed.)

Other writing

• Blog posts at the Washington Post Monkey Cage
• Worth Every Cent, To Help the Poor, Give Them Cash, Foreign Affairs, October 2015, with Paul Niehaus and Michael Faye
• Why Angus Deaton Deserved the Nobel Prize in Economics, Foreign Policy, October 2015
• Let Them Eat Cash, New York Times Op-Ed, June 2014
• Show Them the Money: Why Giving Cash Helps Alleviate Poverty, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2014, with Paul Niehaus.