A popular study from the 1970s that helps sell millions of dollars’ worth of fish oil supplements worldwide is deeply flawed, according to a new study being published in the Canadian Journal of Cardiology.
The original study, by Danish physicians H.O. Bang and D.J. Dyerburg, claimed Inuit in Greenland had low rates of heart disease because of their diet, which is rich in fish oil and omega-3 fatty acids from eating fish and blubber from whales and seals.
“I reviewed this original paper and it turned out to be that they actually never measured the frequency of heart disease in [Inuit],” said Dr. George Fodor, the new study’s lead researcher.
Published medical science is deeply flawed. More often than not, when I’ve looked up a study claiming X, the statistics are deeply problematic. I suspect poor training and poor refereeing are proximately to blame, but there must be some deeper absence of incentives. It’s a shameful state of affairs.
Political science and economics are (a little) better, but as I teach my students, the first thing you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper is, “This is almost certainly wrong.” Depressing but important. Welcome to science.
56 Responses
Alex Tabbarok, and then The Economist, have written a lot about how most published research being wrong.
See: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2005/09/why_most_publis.html
and
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble
Like law – presumed flawed and prove correct “.@TimHarford: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/b0sGKoFyBk”
RT @TimHarford: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/95jye8HEBE
RT @TimHarford: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/95jye8HEBE
RT @TimHarford: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/95jye8HEBE
RT @TimHarford: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/95jye8HEBE
RT @TimHarford: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/95jye8HEBE
RT @TimHarford: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/95jye8HEBE
RT @TimHarford: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/95jye8HEBE
RT @cblatts: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/07XGpy2vry
The first thing you should say as you open every book or research paper is, “This is almost certainly wrong.” http://t.co/qJR92aAKmo
Annals of “All research is wrong”: A popular study from the 1970s that helps sell millions of dollars’ worth o… http://t.co/WhKZuEpTFl
RT @cblatts: New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/cWLQXksWq7
I’ve had my doubts about studies, but is it this bad? http://t.co/slYS1zswUx #NWHW
“Annals of “All research is wrong”” good read http://t.co/kI3e0cDWBk
I love how the claim that economics and political science are better is unsubstantiated.
RT @cblatts: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/07XGpy2vry
Safest prior: “all research is wrong”, and the myth of fish oil via @cblatts http://t.co/yC375eGaDo
Annals of “All research is wrong”. #research #medicine #science #publication http://t.co/Vl5EMni6Yo
Woah sobering truth from the bestest academic I know @cblatts – Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/l4SAv0EqZH
Love this blog http://t.co/noL050R2Hq
The modal study is probably wrong. http://t.co/NEsQoPMJqR
I agree that there are high profile examples of studies published in medical journals (ahem, LANCET) that were subsequently shown to be bunk. Assuming you don’t have any sort of economics superiority complex (I’ve seen Easterly’s comic strip), aren’t you drawing some hasty conclusions from a very small sample size? Or are you saying that there is something inherently better about the production of economics/political science knowledge compared to the production of medical knowledge? (In order to get a JPE you need to present the econ paper at 30 different brown bag lunches, post it on the Internet prior to publication, circulate it, etc — so by the time it actually gets published in JPE then the publication event is more or like an afterthought and all of the reputation-making has already occurred. Contrast that to getting a JAMA paper– you’re explicitly *barred* from presenting at more than 1 conference prior to publication, and you keep it under wraps until the publication event.)
RT @Africa_evidence: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/8CBdMLmUPc
Depressing: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/Sy3QJGOSDb @CBlatts
RT @zivjeli: “Annals of “All research is wrong”” http://t.co/SY8NVaoKHk
“Annals of “All research is wrong”” http://t.co/SY8NVaoKHk
I’m not sure how I should apply the Blattman rule to papers that fail to replicate earlier papers.
RT @Africa_evidence: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/8CBdMLmUPc
RT @Africa_evidence: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/8CBdMLmUPc
Annals of “All research is wrong” – Chris Blattman http://t.co/W4yZO97ngV
RT @cblatts: New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/cWLQXksWq7
RT @cblatts: Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/07XGpy2vry
RT @cblatts: New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/cWLQXksWq7
Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/xIvGDjdOuG AKA – Science is faith-based
RT @cblatts: New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/M9gnm3DJBl
RT @cblatts: New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/cWLQXksWq7
RT @cblatts: New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/cWLQXksWq7
RT @cblatts: New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/cWLQXksWq7
lol RT @cblatts: New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/zw6ANIsHOl
New study finds that people who take fish oil supplements don’t know statistics? http://t.co/cWLQXksWq7
RT @JohnArnoldFndtn: First thing you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper is, “This is almost certainly wrong” …
RT @FreddK: [what] you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper, “This is almost certainly wrong”… http://t.co/zgD…
RT @JohnArnoldFndtn: First thing you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper is, “This is almost certainly wrong” …
First thing you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper is, “This is almost certainly wrong” http://t.co/IV05jxqfuJ
I’m curious about the broad claim that political science and econ are better. I imagine this may be true in terms of strict adherence to the appropriate use of statistical methods, but that’s only one particular way for a study to be “deeply flawed”. As a generalization, I think medical science has better, more reliable data than social science. (This is particularly true of the “development” sub-fields of social sciences. Those household surveys are crap.) Medical research also tends to work with more cogent, well-founded, testable theories than social science. Medical journals offer fewer examples of researchers selectively mining huge data sets in search of significant relationships.
One final thought. I’m not sure if this is accurate, but it seem to me that there’s been a huge proliferation in 2nd and 3rd tier peer-reviewed publications in the social sciences, which produce a sheer volume of crap research that dwarfs anything in medicine. Maybe there are also a bunch of lower-tier medical journals that I don’t know about that are doing the same thing, but my impression is that the medical establishment has done a better “gatekeeper” job at stemming the profusion of shoddy journals publishing shoddy research than the social sciences have.
“[tell yourself] as you open every book or research paper…’This is almost certainly wrong.'” http://t.co/aMEAGRSvPk” from @cblatts
RT @jcaverley: “1st thing you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper is, ‘This is almost certainly wrong.'” http:/…
RT @jcaverley: “1st thing you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper is, ‘This is almost certainly wrong.'” http:/…
“1st thing you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper is, ‘This is almost certainly wrong.'” http://t.co/agF5eSrx4Z
Does this also apply to RCT’s. Can they, at least some of them, be interpreted as ridiculous conclusion theory rather than randomised control test.
I remember reading somewhere about an economist who did not use complicated and bewildering mathematical calculations for his theory but used words and lateral thinking. But maybe he was not highly thought of. I can’t remember who he was.
.@cblatts argues pub’d medical science worse than pub’d polisci and econ. in terms of stats practice. I feel sick. http://t.co/Kvq23vPn2w
Annals of “All research is wrong” http://t.co/8CBdMLmUPc
[what] you should say to yourself as you open every book or research paper, “This is almost certainly wrong”… http://t.co/zgDiXxNF87
Am consistently amazed at how bad medical research is…I’m clearly not Bayesian MT @cblatts: “All research is wrong” http://t.co/QUZD91XTWy
.@cblatts love this but how is poli sci + econ research better than medical science? Media interpretation maybe but not studies themselves?