human capital plays a much more important role in China’s economic growth than available literature suggests, 38.1% of economic growth over 1978-2008, and even higher for 1999-2008.

From a new paper by Whalley and Zhao, who make the useful point that college enrollment in China increased nearly fivefold between 1997 and 2007, while income growth little changed. This means residual productivity declined dramatically.

Is there such a thing as a human capital bubble? The Times channels Ted Gurr and raises fears of an army of angry of unemployed college graduates.

Of course, in the past two days the Times has also raised fears of a Chinese asset bubble and rising cost of living for Chinese poor. It’s like they reset the China doomsday clock every six hours.