The most serious and ignored public health crisis of the 21st century?

This Christmas, do not forget the forgotten:
Screenshot 2014-12-23 09.09.38

when no exam is imminent the family death rate per 100 students (FDR) is low and is not related to the student’s grade in the class. The effect of an upcoming exam is unambiguous. The mean FDR jumps from 0.054 with no exam, to 0.574 with a mid-term, and to 1.042 with a final, representing increases of 10 fold and 19 fold respectively.

Only one conclusion can be drawn from these data. Family members literally worry themselves to death over the outcome of their relatives’ performance on each exam. Naturally, the worse the student’s record is, and the more important the exam, the more the family worries; and it is the ensuing tension that presumably causes premature death.

Full paper.

There is only one solution, of course: cash transfers to poor-performing students. I await the GiveDirectly program.

Hat tip to @freakonometrics.

33 Responses

  1. There are other ways to explain the results:
    1- Deaths get more reported when there’s an exam. Why would you report a death if there is no exam.
    2- Students who have a close sick family member are more worried and have lower grades.
    3- Students from poorer background tend to have lower grades. They also tend to come from larger families that have lower health outcomes.
    I guess the interpretation really depends on your priors.