The inner irrational tension faced by the social scientist at election time

I know that checking the FiveThirtyEight election forecast and Intrade predictions every fifteen seconds is a pointless exercise. Even the daily change offers minimal information. But I get such unadulterated thrills of anticipation and satisfaction…

14 thoughts on “The inner irrational tension faced by the social scientist at election time

  1. For me, there is no satisfaction, only frustration. I feel this incredible urge to scream into the ether about what probabilities mean, what prediction with discrete outcomes means, and so on. I can’t wait for this to be over.

  2. interesting question is – would you check less if Obama (who I’ll just assume you’re rooting for, pinko Canadian that you are) were behind and checking 538 would be painful rather than satisfactory?

  3. I know what you mean. FiveThirtyEight is the only blog I visit by compulsively typing into the URL bar; everything else I read in Google Reader.