To be honest, the only two sources of information to which I pay serious attention are Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog and, maybe, the Intrade forecast. I place substantially more weight on Silver, at least this far out from the election, if only because his analysis and not just his numbers are inspired.
My read on why Intrade is more pessimistic on Obama than Silver’s model: Intrade traders are building in unexpected events where (because the world economy is, frankly, teetering on the brink) Obama has much more downside risk. This is something Silver’s model cannot easily account for. So useful to track both.
If I had to pick other news sources this cycle, I might say the New Yorker’s Political Scene podcast, and of course the Daily Show. Plus my Twitter feed.
Those I follow turn out to be raging partisan democrats, as it turns out. While I lean that direction myself, I miss the view from the other side. This became especially apparent over the convention week, as they whipped themselves up into a frenzy. Even the semi-Conservatives I follow (e.g. Andrew Sullivan) have tilted Obama. Only David Frum is left (by which I mean right).
So who are the conservative tweeps worth following?