Economics Nobel prize predictions

You can find a couple of lists already out here and here, as well as a more complete set of odds from last year here – just ignore Ostrom & Williamson, who weren’t exactly at the top anyway. I’m sure there will be new lists around the web in the next few days; the prize will be announced on Monday the 11th.

I think Dixit still has a chance, despite Krugman already winning, but not this year. Others to watch in the next few years are Barro, Tirole, and the Nordhaus / Weitzman pairing that several have postulated. Behavioral economics is close to my heart, and I’d love to see one or more prizes along those lines in the next decade or so (e.g. Rabin, or Camerer/Fehr for neuroeconomics).

In fact, counting down in likelihood, a related topic starts off my three most likely choices:

3. Shiller & Thaler for behavioral finance

2. Sargent for macro

1. Hansen & Hausman (and Hal White to make it ha-ha-ha?) for econometrics

One thought on “Economics Nobel prize predictions

  1. Tirole won a few years ago, no?

    Baumol is getting old, and much more valuable than Sargent, whose comic masterpiece The Conquest of American Inflation ranks with Maus and BIrth of a Nation (the Aaron McGruder) as three of the best-selling graphic novels of all time.