In 20 or 30 years, most of the still poor countries will be today’s fragile states. Everywhere else will probably have reached middle income levels. Development economics will become, in part, the study of political stability. Aid programs will face greater than ever challenges. So what could civil society, aid agencies start doing now?
Fragile states are tough places to plan and program. We have little data, and arguably each fragile situation is unique. The drivers of conflict, the constraints to prosperity, and what states and aid can do about it—these are largely unknown.
So, the big question I want to pose is how one plans and programs in this environment. How can a big bureaucracy—be it a government or the World Bank or the UNDP—develop systems for learning and scaling what works in fragile, uncertain environments, and changing course as new information comes in? To me the question, “what process?” comes before “what program?”. Or at least it should.
The answer, I think, is to be a little of what Karl Popper called the piecemeal social engineer. Tinkering at small scale with many things. Crossing a river by feeling each stone.
An excerpt from my speaking notes to a recent World Bank, UNDP and ILO conference about what to do about employment and violence in fragile states.
I also talked recently about what we know about poverty and violence, not just how to program and learn. See the speaking notes here. Comments are welcome, since I’m pondering a book.
What you don’t know is that I think all of this advice is bunk if governments don’t get a few things right at the global level. If I have time, I’ll post some informal thoughts on this later this week.
62 Responses
Agreed on process over programme, and on being cautious about what we know about fragile contexts. However, I think this may be over-stating it: “The drivers of conflict, the constraints to prosperity, and what states and aid can do about it—these are largely unknown.” The New Deal, the IDPS, and the 2011 WDR represent a fairly overwhelming and uncontested consensus on conflict drivers and what can be done about them. These frameworks all agree on the primacy of good local context analysis, even if donors in practice largely ignore their own advice on how to do it. These frameworks also more or less converge on governance, sustainable and equitable livelihoods, peace capacities, and civic empowerment as the ‘big ticket items’, even if they lack proven programmatic approaches to achieving those ends. But thanks Chris for providing this clarion call for a little epistemic humility; Severine Autesserre’s “Peaceland” makes a similar point though narrowly from within the “peace industry”.
RT @fp2p: Interesting. Deeper implication of poverty -> fragile states is that aid biz needs to shift frm econ to politics http://t.co/HeuK…
RT @fp2p: Interesting. Deeper implication of poverty -> fragile states is that aid biz needs to shift frm econ to politics http://t.co/HeuK…
How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states – Chris Blattman @cblatts http://t.co/5TCQYNkDoc HT @DAWNSDigest
RT @robcrilly: “How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states” http://t.co/m6yrZ1kMH6 as ever… @cblatts is your man
Also in #aid, It’s about the processes and systems. Thought-provoking article by @cblatts http://t.co/8AMNAzsmYW
“How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states” http://t.co/m6yrZ1kMH6 as ever… @cblatts is your man
No. Should stay Econ, but understand pol issues. RT @cblatts “Is dev econ destined to become the study of politics?” http://t.co/wDLQ1FHeps
Strongly agree with @cblatts opening statement here: it is basically the impetus behind my PhD http://t.co/zPqkjf3WME
RT @cblatts: Is development economics destined to become the study of politics? http://t.co/mE5AqqR6Oj
RT @cblatts: Since we don’t know what to do, how aid agencies can figure it out in fragile states http://t.co/PhSsFrQ3Zn via @jetpack
“So what could civil society, aid agencies start doing [in fragile states] now?” http://t.co/mtSJUe7jYH by @cblatts
RT @fp2p: Interesting. Deeper implication of poverty -> fragile states is that aid biz needs to shift frm econ to politics http://t.co/HeuK…
RT @cblatts: How aid agencies can find a path in fragile states http://t.co/Ams92Hym4R via @yashodunn
@yashodunn Thx for bringing this important analysis of @cblatts to our attention! We’ll share now
RT @fp2p: Interesting. Deeper implication of poverty -> fragile states is that aid biz needs to shift frm econ to politics http://t.co/HeuK…
RT @SLRCtweet: How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states? http://t.co/rBhn5FbieA #conflict #aid
RT @SLRCtweet: How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states? http://t.co/rBhn5FbieA #conflict #aid
Notes for important questions RT @cblatts: How aid agencies can find a path in fragile states http://t.co/RUBBb973KE cc: @theHiveConflict
Notes for important questions RT @cblatts: How aid agencies can find a path in fragile states http://t.co/WD5D9nAmtQ cc: @YongmeiZhou
@cblatts Fascinating notes; linked to my own research on conflict & programs in PAK. Find conflict reduces prog access & increases borrowing
RT @SLRCtweet: How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states? http://t.co/rBhn5FbieA #conflict #aid
How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states? http://t.co/rBhn5FbieA #conflict #aid
@jay_ulfelder @cblatts Absolutely. It does make me wonder if we need a network of “ethics in political science” sort of types as well.
RT @jay_ulfelder: @raulpacheco Yes. You prob saw it already, but @cblatts wrote good post on related issues a few days ago: http://t.co/Gdn…
@raulpacheco Yes. You prob saw it already, but @cblatts wrote good post on related issues a few days ago: http://t.co/Gdn23852qG
How should civil society, aid agencies, and govs plan programming in fragile states? Via @cblatts http://t.co/CHgcsRbNbm
Back to politics then:”#development economics will become, in part, the study of political stability” http://t.co/coZJ23Fcxp #FragileStates
How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states http://t.co/ggRImqx2cA via @jetpack
RT @fp2p: Interesting. Deeper implication of poverty -> fragile states is that aid biz needs to shift frm econ to politics http://t.co/HeuK…
RT @cblatts: In 30 yrs most poor ppl will be in today’s fragile states. Everywhere else will have reached middle income. http://t.co/jJXk19…
RT @cblatts: Is development economics destined to become the study of politics? http://t.co/mE5AqqR6Oj
RT @cblatts: How aid agencies can find a path in fragile states http://t.co/XVPGIuYIPw
RT @cblatts: In 30 yrs most poor ppl will be in today’s fragile states. Everywhere else will have reached middle income. http://t.co/jJXk19…
RT @cblatts: In 30 yrs most poor ppl will be in today’s fragile states. Everywhere else will have reached middle income. http://t.co/jJXk19…
RT @cblatts: In 30 yrs most poor ppl will be in today’s fragile states. Everywhere else will have reached middle income. http://t.co/jJXk19…
Insighful reflections by @cblatts: How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states http://t.co/7C1PxFk66l vía @jetpack
RT @cblatts: Is development economics destined to become the study of politics? http://t.co/mE5AqqR6Oj
RT @cblatts: Is development economics destined to become the study of politics? http://t.co/mE5AqqR6Oj
RT @cblatts: In 30 yrs most poor ppl will be in today’s fragile states. Everywhere else will have reached middle income. http://t.co/jJXk19…
RT @cblatts: In 30 yrs most poor ppl will be in today’s fragile states. Everywhere else will have reached middle income. http://t.co/jJXk19…
RT @cblatts: Is development economics destined to become the study of politics? http://t.co/L13sexqwVB
@cblatts shouldn’t development economics already be the study of politics???
@cblatts Interesting thoughts & biggest challenge facing aid. What is military’s role? They are a big player in conflict or fragile states.
Since we don’t know what to do, how aid agencies can figure it out in fragile states http://t.co/PhSsFrQ3Zn via @jetpack
@cblatts Like all policy.
@cblatts I agree with you, but in a slightly different way. Aid programs should be more about changing policies: http://t.co/EaumuWGixh
Is development economics destined to become the study of politics? http://t.co/mE5AqqR6Oj
How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states: In 20 or 30 years, most of the still poor countries wi… http://t.co/23YlV8NLfT
@cblatts Really interesting, Chris – & opp. of what we found in rural Afghanistan.Would love to talk and test limits of these interventions
MT @cblatts: How aid agencies can find path in fragile states http://t.co/E7ayhfNUUM Focus on process not program. Admit ignorance.
Interesting opening sentence. I think the Latin Americans, apart from Chile and Uruguay and maybe Columbia, will all be in total disarray by then having had a military coup, civil war and general economic catastrophe over the period. Africa will be more or less as it is today; Big manism will always prevail. So I wonder where that leaves the opening sentence.
I think a reduction of bilateral aid and an increase of aid direct to the people will help. How to achieve? Don’t know.
Tinkering at small scale the way for aid agencies to find their path in fragile states? More from @cblatts http://t.co/UCz9u40xHk
How aid agencies can find a path in fragile states http://t.co/XVPGIuYIPw
Great stuff Chris and very much in keeping with Tim Harford’s work in Adapt, PDIA stuff by Matt, Michael & Lant and my own arguments in Aid on the Edge of Chaos.
But how do you ensure systematic experiments in such contexts? Some argue that what you need is complete freedom from usual aid bureaucratic constraints, let a thousand flowers bloom, and then fail fast / learn quickly. But others suggest that you need a decent map of the problem first so you can identify possible ‘points of leverage’ and experiment with some structure. It shouldn’t be an either / or, of course, but this is exactly how some are framing it.
By the way, I was involved in the design of a new £100m DFID programme in DRC on taking exactly this kind of experimental approach to private sector development. Happy to share details via email if you are interested.
@cblatts @nonso2 If you said 30 years ago, that the Soviet Union would collapse in 7 years, you’d have been laughed out of the room.
.@cblatts By “Everywhere else” you mean “All other states”? There will still be parts of middle income states with lots of poor people.
In 30 yrs most poor ppl will be in today’s fragile states. Everywhere else will have reached middle income. http://t.co/jJXk19Ll72
RT @cblatts: How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states http://t.co/rdpoibgaYq
Would love to see more donors take this approach. RT @cblatts How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states http://t.co/QSB7gyGpzn
RT @cblatts: How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states http://t.co/rdpoibgaYq
RT @cblatts: How aid agencies can find their path in fragile states http://t.co/rdpoibgaYq