Intrade is now betting that nearly two thirds of electoral votes will go to Obama–including Florida.
This from a market that Justin Wolfers suggests may be Republican biased (here too).
I realize that such a lead may be short-lived. And any market that puts sizable probabilities on Palin and Biden withdrawing from the race is clearly flawed. But I’m just happy that at least one financial market is giving me good news today.
One Response
What I think is a bit irrational on Intrade is that over at 538, the top eight tossup states include the cluster of 4 in the north that includes PA, OH, MI, & IN, the two in the south: FL & VA, and two in the west: CO & NV. The intrade map shows Obama winning every one of them but Indiana. I think that's a stretch.
Usually when polls for one candidate get this good at any point in time, they tend to swing back the other way a few weeks later. But, considering the Palin implosion is only beginning, we may yet see an Obama landslide.