Chris Blattman

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War between Sudan and Chad imminent?


It looks like my hopes for soccer diplomacy may have been premature.

My wife Jeannie was supposed to travel to Abeche on Saturday, near the Chad-Sudan border, for work with Dafuri refugees. Her trip was just canceled a few moments ago.

The NGO with whom she’s working reports that Chadian and Sudanese forces are gathering at the border, possibly about to attack one other. The NGO has moved its staff to a nearby town.

The information is sketchy, but an AFP report, dated about an hour ago, reports Chadian army helicopter attacks near Abeche. French troops (supporting the government) and French peace keepers under the UN are stationed in Chad, but are not yet releasing details.

Tensions have been rising since Saturday. From the AFP :

On Saturday, rebels from war-torn Darfur staged an unprecedented attack on Khartoum’s twin city of Omdurman — the first time that the capital has ever been involved in decades of regional fighting.

More than 200 people were killed in that assault and other clashes outside the city in recent days.

Sudan accused Chad of backing the rebels and broke off diplomatic ties on Sunday. Chad closed its border the following day, ramping up tensions.

Relations have been strained since 2003 when war broke out in Darfur, sending hundreds of thousands of desperate refugees fleeing across the Chadian border.

Meanwhile, tensions intensified on Tuesday and Wednesday in southern Sudan with the kidnapping of oil workers and the killing of a Sudanese government official by south Sudanese rebels (the SPLA). Probably unrelated, but who’s to say. See the CS Monitor article here.

My guess is that outright war between Chad and Sudan is extremely unlikely. Rather, they will probably continue to fight by proxy through opposing rebel groups: the Sudanese army fighting Chad-supported Darfur rebels, and the Chadian army fighting Sudan-supported Chadian rebels. This was Sudan’s approach to the war in northern Uganda as well. This kind of war iss worst for those trapped in between–namely civilians in Darfur and eastern Chad.

Reader insights, or links to further information, are welcome in the comments section.

One Response

  1. interesting, esp when the following ingredients are folded into the mix

    a december 2006 Report to Members of the Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate brought up this bit on chad

    One Central African country in particular illustrates the need for State Department perspective and guidance to temper Defense Department enthusiasm. The country is unstable, desperately poor, and run by a repressive government that is being challenged by a persistent armed resistance. Desperate for a military strong enough to protect it from the rebels, the government has signed an Article 98 agreement, exempting U.S. military personnel from International Criminal Court procedures and thus enabling it to receive military assistance. It has also signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States. With extensive “under-governed spaces” as potential terrorist havens and bordering countries with equally uncertain futures, the country was termed “a model country for security assistance” by the regional combatant command. Civilian embassy officials, however, are demonstrably less keen. They question the rate at which military programs are rapidly escalating and the sizable and still growing presence of U.S. military personnel in-country. A U.S.-labeled backpack, observed on a government soldier undergoing U.S. training, underscored for SFRC staff the potential complications of a too-close association with the country’s military. It would be a major setback if the United States were to be implicated in support of operations shoring up the repressive regime, regardless of the stated intent of such training.

    two months later, on feb 17, 2007

    Memorandum for the Secretary of State
    SUBJECT: Presidential Determination on Waiving Prohibition on United States Military Assistance With Respect to Chad

    Consistent with the authority vested in me by section 2007 of the American Servicemembers’ Protection Act of 2002, (the “Act”), title II of Public Law 107-206 (22 U.S.C. 7421 et seq.), I hereby:

    * Determine that Chad has entered into an agreement with the United States pursuant to Article 98 of the Rome Statute preventing the International Criminal Court from proceeding against U.S. personnel present in such country; and

    * Waive the prohibition of section 2007(a) of the Act with respect to this country for as long as such agreement remains in force.

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