Chris Blattman

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Kenya crisis updates

Ryan Sheely discusses why a simple recount will not be so simple. A must read. If he’s right, then as Kenya Jurist points out, any solution must be both legal and political.

The Daily Nation suggests an “amicable solution” such as a unity government, even if it is unconstitutional. My expectations of the Nation are higher. These are some of the leading independent thinkers in the country. They should be giving Gordon Brown good, workable ideas. Not the other way around.

The Guardian reports that the US and UK are issuing joint statements advocating political compromise, and that the African Union President should arrive today to mediate. But where is Thabo Mbeki? Nelson Mandela? Joachim Chissano? We should be piling on the elder African statesmen like nobody’s business.

I remain skeptical of the unity government proposition.

But maybe someone is listening to it? President Kibaki has apparently invited all newly elected MPs to a meeting in State House this afternoon. The meeting should be going on now.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times editors are more provocative in their recommendations:

It should be made clear to Mr Kibaki that his government is illegitimate.
If he refuses to accept that, the western powers should suspend programme aid
and devote the money to emergency relief and supporting any more muscular AU
intervention. Visas should be refused not only to corrupt officials, but to Mr
Kibaki and his team.

I’m sympathetic to a hard line stance. But is the suspension of aid a credible threat in a humanitarian emergency, when primarily the poor will suffer? Some types of aid suspensions will hurt ruling elites more and poor people less. Let’s be more specific. Let’s also see some evidence that this has ever been effective as a strategy.

If you wonder why I’m not quoting the US media, it’s because I haven’t found anything worth quoting. Advice: Stick to the African and UK press on this one. AllAfrica.com’s Kenya page (or RSS feed) is a good bet.

Kumekucha suggests why the violence is not as tribal as the media reports. I agree. Let us move away from the spectacular stereotypes.

Finally, some photos from Insight Kenya are recommended.

One Response

  1. I wonder about the deeper background to the current crisis.

    One gets the sense that an all too common story might be at work here:

    Undiversified, aid-dependent economy means that control of the state equals control over significant assets and opportunities. Access is conditional on relationship to incumbent, who is thus custodian of exclusionary political economy. For some reason, incumbent loses control over electoral dynamics, which presents a secular opportunity for the excluded to seize control of assets and opportunities. Recognizing what is at stake, incumbent tries to prevent control from being pried from his grasp. Fighting ensues.

    Something like this story is what we heard about Burundi in 1993 during the course of our research there over the past 2 years. It’s also like the story one reads about Rwanda in 1959 or even Congo-Brazzaville since 1997. It echoes recent stories told about Bolivia, heck even Venezuela for some… It bears resemblance to the “revolutionary politics” story that has been formalized by Carles Boix, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, and Thad Dunning, among others.

    I wonder whether this “exclusion” or “mass discrimination” lens is relevant here. If one were to peer into the records in the education system, for example, would one find overrepresentation of one group or another? If so, there are implications for how external aid should be used as leverage for dealing with the type of exclusion that may be at the heart of the crisis.

    I’d be interested in hearing responses to the applicability of this lens.

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