How to reconcile press coverage of the “close” Republican contest when the Intrade probability of a Santorum win is down to 6%?

Intrade predictions here.

My guess: the people betting on the race have done the delegate math (and added the SuperPAC $), while the press have not.

One has an incentive for a good story, the other has the incentive to be correct.

The 6% represents the expected probability that there will be an upset on Super Tuesday, as there was a couple of weeks back, which would change the race.

My hunch: The race is over. The remainder of the nomination contest will be self-inflicting wounds.

Thoughts?