Intrade predictions here.
My guess: the people betting on the race have done the delegate math (and added the SuperPAC $), while the press have not.
One has an incentive for a good story, the other has the incentive to be correct.
The 6% represents the expected probability that there will be an upset on Super Tuesday, as there was a couple of weeks back, which would change the race.
My hunch: The race is over. The remainder of the nomination contest will be self-inflicting wounds.
Thoughts?
5 Responses
It is in the best interest of the media to keep the race alive. The longer the process is drawn out and the more talk of SuperPAC’s influencing voters, the more money is spent on advertising. This primary season is a cash cow for the media, and they intend to milk it dry.
Yep. Everybody likes a good horse race. That’s the explanation. Hence Trump + Palin + Perry + Cain were all Very Serious Candidates at some point. They only looked serious due to media hype, not serious politicking. (Hey, remember Alvin Green from South Carolina..?)
That said, I’d say 6% is low enough to be worth betting on.
I think I would bet on Santorum at 6%. There has already been more unpredictability than I would have guessed, and the longer it goes the higher the chance that something crazy happens on either side. Romney still far more likely, but a lot of people really don’t like him.
I think most people have thought Romney will win, just a question of how long and how much money it takes.
Let them inflict as many wounds as possible.
They can commit a cult-like mass suicide, for all I care.