Given the high degree of euphoria and romanticism in the coverage by both Western and Arab media of recent popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, it would be useful for everyone to take a few deep breaths and remind ourselves that revolutions often look very attractive in the beginning. Then they usually go through some really bad periods; the French reign of terror and the decade of political turmoil that followed, the crushing oppression of Soviet communism in Russia, and the unfinished misery of Iranians.
I would like to be optimistic, and there are some positive signs in Tunisia and Egypt. Both countries have strong traditions of national pride, histories of constitutionalism, cultural riches, and a middle class of educated men and women. So far, the armed forces in both countries have shown a degree of professionalism and discipline that have earned the respect of both popular forces and key civilian government institutions. Both have had respectable economic growth rates at a time of global economic distress. Regrettably, however, there are also major factors working against a happy outcome in the next several years.
More from David Kenner here.
A co-author and friend tweets from Cairo and also recommends this blog.
4 Responses
While I hope for the best for Egypt and a peaceful departure of Mubarak, that seems like it may end up being implausible. Revolutions throughout history have been both beneficial to some parties and negative to others. Who’s to say that a revolution in Egypt may not be positive? While i’m not hoping for a revolution in Egypt, and I hope that there may be a peaceful resolution, a revolution may be what the citizens of Egypt need. It may end up beneficial to all of the middle east that are ruled under autocracy’s. Like Paul said struggles are ahead no matter what route is taken, but a drawn out withdrawal process under Mubarak may not end up being what’s best for the country.
Prof. Blattman’s point, I believe–and my own point, for sure–is that wishing for Mubarak’s peaceful departure is wholly compatible with fearing that his departure will be otherwise.
Is the French Revolution really the right comparison? In the last 25 years, popular revolution also took down the Berlin Wall, took out the apartheid government in South Africa, improved democracy in Ukraine.
These middle income countries have a lot more to do with Egypt in Tunisia than 1789 France and 1917 Russia. So no thank you, I will not take a deep breath; we are witnessing a historic period for the Arab world. There will be struggles ahead, but today we should celebrate and root for the long overdue fall of these brutal dictators.
I take my guidance regarding the crisis in Egypt from a handful of Egyptian colleagues at Al Wahda Private School in Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates. I hear nothing good from them about Mubarak, but they have parents and other family still in Egypt whom they fear a revolution will consume. I therefore appreciate your cautious pessimism, reflective of their fears that, as bad as Mubarak is, his violent or hasty removal could precipitate even worse conditions for ordinary Egyptians. Is this implausible, given that one can make a reasonable case that Saddam Hussein’s toppling made life worse for most Iraqis?