Comments on: How to bump your GDP http://chrisblattman.com/2009/11/28/how-to-bump-your-gdp/ International development, politics, economics, and policy Sun, 12 Feb 2012 07:48:53 +0000 hourly 1 By: Kevin Maleyhttp://chrisblattman.com/2009/11/28/how-to-bump-your-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-10603 Kevin Maley Wed, 02 Dec 2009 04:10:08 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3857#comment-10603 Playing with numbers to manipulate your perceived growth rate works on a micro level as well; Goldman Sachs (or was it JPMorgan?) had an infamous "orphan month" in its fourth quarter earnings last year where it switched from a Dec-Feb for 4th quarter to Jan-March for 1st quarter, thus leaving out December entirely for a quarterly rate. December had the worst losses, and all was well. Manipulate GDP seems a logical outgrowth of this kind of thinking Playing with numbers to manipulate your perceived growth rate works on a micro level as well; Goldman Sachs (or was it JPMorgan?) had an infamous “orphan month” in its fourth quarter earnings last year where it switched from a Dec-Feb for 4th quarter to Jan-March for 1st quarter, thus leaving out December entirely for a quarterly rate. December had the worst losses, and all was well. Manipulate GDP seems a logical outgrowth of this kind of thinking

]]> By: Pregnancy: Baby bump! | Pampered Pregnancyhttp://chrisblattman.com/2009/11/28/how-to-bump-your-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-10487 Pregnancy: Baby bump! | Pampered Pregnancy Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:48:50 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3857#comment-10487 [...] How to bump your GDP – Chris Blattman [...] [...] How to bump your GDP – Chris Blattman [...]

]]> By: Ranil Dissanayakehttp://chrisblattman.com/2009/11/28/how-to-bump-your-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-10449 Ranil Dissanayake Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:17:11 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3857#comment-10449 Leigh, Sebastien - bear in mind how difficult it is measure the informal economy in Africa generally. These networks of economic activity are vast but mobile and small scale in their individual 'outlets'. The practical difficulties must have been mindboggling.that's before you get into the true 'crime' as opposed to informality. What do you do, wait to get carjacked and then do a survey on how many cars that guy stole that week and what their resale value was? Leigh, Sebastien – bear in mind how difficult it is measure the informal economy in Africa generally. These networks of economic activity are vast but mobile and small scale in their individual ‘outlets’. The practical difficulties must have been mindboggling.

that’s before you get into the true ‘crime’ as opposed to informality. What do you do, wait to get carjacked and then do a survey on how many cars that guy stole that week and what their resale value was?

]]> By: Sebastianhttp://chrisblattman.com/2009/11/28/how-to-bump-your-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-10403 Sebastian Sun, 29 Nov 2009 22:05:11 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3857#comment-10403 actually afaik the EU <i>requires</i> member states to account for informal activities within their GDP calculations (which are relevant beyond mere comparisons of size because member dues depend partly on them). But I'm with Leigh - 0.2%??? I think the only country in the world that might be close that that number is the Vatican. (The standard shadow economy literature hast the lowest countries - usually it's Switzerland - at around 4-5% http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/21855/1/dp2004-16.pdf ) actually afaik the EU requires member states to account for informal activities within their GDP calculations (which are relevant beyond mere comparisons of size because member dues depend partly on them). But I’m with Leigh – 0.2%???
I think the only country in the world that might be close that that number is the Vatican.
(The standard shadow economy literature hast the lowest countries – usually it’s Switzerland – at around 4-5% http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/21855/1/dp2004-16.pdf )

]]> By: Leigh Caldwellhttp://chrisblattman.com/2009/11/28/how-to-bump-your-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-10382 Leigh Caldwell Sun, 29 Nov 2009 14:58:01 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3857#comment-10382 Maybe their objective is simply to provide the most accurate possible picture in their official statistics!Well, it's not impossible.But 0.2%? Even in Britain that would be far too low, and in South Africa? Hmm. Maybe their objective is simply to provide the most accurate possible picture in their official statistics!

Well, it’s not impossible.

But 0.2%? Even in Britain that would be far too low, and in South Africa? Hmm.

]]> By: Kerim Canhttp://chrisblattman.com/2009/11/28/how-to-bump-your-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-10346 Kerim Can Sun, 29 Nov 2009 07:06:42 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3857#comment-10346 Does anyone know why the SA gov't blatantly manipulates the numbers like this? Who is the target?I don't think the target is the SA voters. Those people do not care about GDP numbers; they care about real economic changes in their lives (unemployment, prices etc).Maybe the target is the aid donors. If the SA gov't can claim to achieve some growth the donors will be less likely to believe that their aid is wasted. Then the question is: are aid donors that gullible that they will buy the GDP numbers and not see the manipulation?Maybe the target is international financiers. If SA gov't can show some growth it will be less likely to suffer from a bank run on vulnerable/unreliable markets. Again the question is: are international financial agents that gullible?In short, it seems to me that only SA voters are gullible enough to believe the numbers but they don't care about the numbers. People who care about the numbers will see through this manipulation.Does anyone know of any research on this? Does anyone know why the SA gov’t blatantly manipulates the numbers like this? Who is the target?

I don’t think the target is the SA voters. Those people do not care about GDP numbers; they care about real economic changes in their lives (unemployment, prices etc).

Maybe the target is the aid donors. If the SA gov’t can claim to achieve some growth the donors will be less likely to believe that their aid is wasted. Then the question is: are aid donors that gullible that they will buy the GDP numbers and not see the manipulation?

Maybe the target is international financiers. If SA gov’t can show some growth it will be less likely to suffer from a bank run on vulnerable/unreliable markets. Again the question is: are international financial agents that gullible?

In short, it seems to me that only SA voters are gullible enough to believe the numbers but they don’t care about the numbers. People who care about the numbers will see through this manipulation.

Does anyone know of any research on this?

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