Comments on: Climate shocks and economic growth http://chrisblattman.com/2009/09/24/climate-shocks-and-economic-growth/ Research, international development, foreign policy, and violent conflict Fri, 10 Sep 2010 04:16:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Zo http://chrisblattman.com/2009/09/24/climate-shocks-and-economic-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-7275 Zo Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:26:39 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3514#comment-7275 The claim that climate change negatively impacts poor countries worse than rich countries is not a new idea, nor surprising. Does it not make sense that those already at the margin would be hit the hardest by any adverse change, be it in climate or, for example, a global financial crisis? While I agree that supporting such claims with evidence is important, I do not see this as “first-order importance” (page 26 of Dell, Jones and Olken’s paper linked above). The claim that climate change negatively impacts poor countries worse than rich countries is not a new idea, nor surprising. Does it not make sense that those already at the margin would be hit the hardest by any adverse change, be it in climate or, for example, a global financial crisis? While I agree that supporting such claims with evidence is important, I do not see this as “first-order importance” (page 26 of Dell, Jones and Olken’s paper linked above).

]]> By: James http://chrisblattman.com/2009/09/24/climate-shocks-and-economic-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-7274 James Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:07:21 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3514#comment-7274 I'm a little surprised that Olken et al. use temperature as an explanatory variable, rather than, say, the absolute value of any deviation from the long-term average temperature. I would think that periods that are unusually cool would have a detrimental impact, as well as periods that are unusually hot. Also, I'd be hesitant to infer much regarding the ability of states to cope with global warming from these results. Most of the variance in the temperature data must come from short-term year-to-year changes. So - after an unusually hot year - the climate probably regresses to the mean. Dealing with long-term shifts in average temperatures may be substantially more difficult. I’m a little surprised that Olken et al. use temperature as an explanatory variable, rather than, say, the absolute value of any deviation from the long-term average temperature. I would think that periods that are unusually cool would have a detrimental impact, as well as periods that are unusually hot.

Also, I’d be hesitant to infer much regarding the ability of states to cope with global warming from these results. Most of the variance in the temperature data must come from short-term year-to-year changes. So – after an unusually hot year – the climate probably regresses to the mean. Dealing with long-term shifts in average temperatures may be substantially more difficult.

]]> By: Matt http://chrisblattman.com/2009/09/24/climate-shocks-and-economic-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-7267 Matt Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:00:37 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3514#comment-7267 Michael - even if it's disease, the casual effect is still the rise in temperature. Michael – even if it’s disease, the casual effect is still the rise in temperature.

]]> By: Michael http://chrisblattman.com/2009/09/24/climate-shocks-and-economic-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-7248 Michael Fri, 25 Sep 2009 00:14:29 +0000 http://chrisblattman.com/?p=3514#comment-7248 Two things: 1) Data from these countries is notoriously . . . imprecise. 2) It's probably disease. Two things:

1) Data from these countries is notoriously . . . imprecise.

2) It’s probably disease.

]]>