Chris Blattman

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Why the coup in Guinea must be overturned

Two days ago, junior army officers in Guinea announced a coup following the (natural) death of autocrat Lansana Conté.

This is not a crisis to be ignored. First, Guinea is becoming the primary conduit of illegal drugs into Europe. In October the UN reported that international drug traffickers from Colombia, Venezuela, Nigeria and Spain had moved their trade up the coast from Guinea-Bissau to Guinea. The junior officers could be working on behalf on these drug cartels.

Second, the other three nations making up the Mano River Basin — Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast — have only just emerged from their own bloody conflicts, each of which was interlinked. Guinea will not go down without taking other nations with it.

There are several signs of hope:

Guinea’s armed forces chief, Gen Diarra Camara, told French TV station France 24 that the coup leaders did not have widespread support. (BBC)

and

The prime minister had not been seen in public since the coup was declared Tuesday, but said by phone from an undisclosed location Wednesday that he remained in control. (IHT)

The EU, the US and the AU have apparently condemned the coup, but more can be done to support the parliament and senior army officers.

In 2005, a similar coup in Togo (one that followed the natural death of a longstanding autocrat) was reversed in large part because of AU and French condemnation (and threats). This is a perfect time for Nicolas Sarkozy to make good on his promise of a new Africa policy (and the AU to make up for their lacklustre pressure on Mugabe).

2 Responses

  1. The Guinea coup is unfortunate, but it is also a tough one to get worked up over for me. Conte’s government was so amazingly corrupt and incompetent, any change in leadership sounds attractive. In the fall, the deposed prime minster fired the surprisingly competent finance minster. Togo’s actually an excellent example. The 2005 coup led to Faure Gnassingbe being (unconstitutionally) installed as President, and since then he has overseen a democratic parliamentary election, engagement with donors, and Togo’s entry into the HIPC debt relief process.

    One nit: Guinea is south of Guinea-Bissau, so drug traffickers would be moving “down” the coast.

  2. Yes, I hope that the AU takes this opportunity to prove that their organisation means something: that dictatorships and coups are no longer the African norm and they are willing to stand against those who would enact coups and with those who promote democracy.

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