The WSJ reports on students in the “Stock Market Game,” a school contest where students from grades four through 12 get a hypothetical $100K to invest in the market:
Michael Ashworth slumped by his computer, weary from another rough day in the stock market. All his favorite picks — Domino’s Pizza Inc., Hershey Co. and Gap Inc. — were down.
“I’ll be honest with you,” he confided. “Before all this, I asked my mom to get me stocks for Christmas,” but then “I told her not to do it. I asked for a parakeet instead.”
Fifteen years from now, some one should follow up this year’s new entrants to the market, and the entrants three years from now (when financial life returns to normal–we hope). Does witnessing a crash early on shape your financial behavior for life?
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Even better:
Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking? by Stefan Nagel and Ulrike Malmendier
Or this year, someone could follow up the entrants to the market from 1997 and see how they coped with the crisis compared to the 2000 intake.
Why wait 15 years?
In my high school gov’t/econ class, the people who did best in these games were the ones who would strategically buy and sell Google throughout the day.
I think we could see changes in financial behaviour among risk averse investors, but as for people who are in hedge funds and short selling and other fancy things I don’t understand, they’ll probably just be excited that with such a volatile market, there is potential for even greater short term rewards.
All in all, I don’t think the effect will be great unless things get much, much worse, like America getting knocked off the superpower wagon worse. People have short memories, and Americans in particular seem to have the mentality that nothing can go wrong with their institutions. I guess we’ll see though in a decade or so, when someone who reads this blog writes their dissertation on it.