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Are the ICC indictments backfiring?

Alex de Waal presents one of the most informed and thoughtful commentaries on the ICC indictments of Sudanese President Bashir to date.

When [ICC prosecutir] Moreno Ocampo made his announcement on Monday, the extreme nature of the charges (genocide against Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa) and the allegation that President Bashir was personally in total command of the state apparatus, made it much easier for the [ruling party] NCP to convincingly present the charges as politically-motivated.

Nobody in Sudan, even the regime’s harshest critic, believes that Bashir was in total command of the organs of state, which bent to his every instruction. The Chief Prosecutor’s statement on Monday had the effect of making him look like any other polemicist speaking about Sudan without understanding the nature of the Sudanese state and society.

The brouhaha may actually have strengthened Bashir, at least for now:

By the time of the Prosecutor’s announcement, therefore, there was a broad political consensus across Sudan in favor of the CPA, elections, and against the indictment of Bashir. This was the logical outcome of the fact that the [former southern rebel force] SPLM and the northern opposition had long ago abandoned attempts to remove the NCP by force. This made Bashir more comfortable and relaxed.

His response was always going to be driven primarily by his own internal political calculus—and especially his need to appear strong if he felt threatened. As he emerged politically stronger on Monday, his response was commensurately restrained.

de Waal even suggests evidence that regional support for Bashir is also improving:

The second strand of the government strategy has been to seek solidarity from regional organizations including the League of Arab States, the African Union and the Organization of the Islamic Conference.

By last weekend, it was clear that the regional organizations all had strong objections to the ICC’s move. Many African states, including Egypt, have been early and strong supporters of the ICC, and their lack of support for this move by the Prosecutor reassured Khartoum. The AU’s new Chairperson, Jean Ping, was particularly outspoken.

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