Well, no. But a new working paper suggests that Brazilian soap operas (telenovelas) have subtly encouraged poor women to bear fewer children.
The researchers compare fertility patterns in areas covered and not covered by the near-monopoly producer of soap operas in Brazil. These shows tend to portray families that are much smaller than in reality, and so the authors argue the effect is one of role modeling. It’s a clever article and a good example of how to creatively approach (and test for) a quasi-experiment.
This reminds me of work by Betsy Paluck, who has looked at the effect of radio soap operas on peace building and racial prejudice in Rwanda. In her case, however, she managed to randomize receipt of the program, comparing its effects to a soap opera communicating health messages.
I’m curious, can we account for role modeling in economic theory? Pointers to papers welcome.
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